SHUTDOWN SHOCK: DELAYS, FURLOUGHS, AND SOFT SPOTS
The longest government shutdown ripples through housing more than headlines suggest. Furloughs and delayed government services slowed FHA/USDA/VA pipelines, appraisal reviews, and data releases lenders rely on. Markets with heavy federal employment now feel a lack of confidence in the market due to a lack of cash flow.
WHAT TO EXPECT
Expect a modest Q1 demand dent, followed by catch-up in activity once operations get back to normalcy.
THE LONGEST GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN RIPPLES THROUGH HOUSING MORE THAN HEADLINES SUGGEST.
TARIFFS KEEP BUILDERS’ COSTS ELEVATED
Tariffs on lumber, cabinets, and other inputs act like sand in the gears of supply. Recent measures aimed at wood products and furnishings point to higher project costs and tighter pro formas, especially for entry-level and build-to-rent housing.
WHAT TO EXPECT
With such trade frictions and additional costs, expect developers to push more price escalators into contracts.
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